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Strategies & Market Trends : Complacency Indexes
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To: Sherman Chen who wrote (413)1/25/2002 4:21:35 PM
From: TechTrader42  Read Replies (1) of 1487
 
There's still some room to the upside Monday, and the market can put on a big show in last-ditch efforts. But with the CI's all so high, it seems risky to be long now. But who knows? The market will go where it goes. In this market, it's risky to be long or short.

It's interesting that the S&P CI's went so high at the end. They'd lingered well below the 90s earlier, and then there was a final rush to buy. Maybe some optimistic traders know something we don't. But the fact that the S&P ones are up there now, too, only confirmed my suspicions that the market was overbought. (But what the heck do I know?)

Again, I really mean it when I say the CI's cannot predict the direction of the market. Any conclusions based on them are guesses, and maybe bad guesses.

I'd be interested to hear what other factors you considered.
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