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Gold/Mining/Energy : Canadian REITS, Trusts & Dividend Stocks
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To: David Culver who wrote (2525)1/25/2002 6:22:14 PM
From: Peter W. Panchyshyn  Read Replies (1) of 11633
 
Below is the historical data for SHN
Again it is from the Financial Post Data Group Publication ANNUAL DIVIDEND RECORD & 10 YEAR PRICE RANGE 2000 EDITION

YEAR ----------HIGH -----------LOW

2001 -----------18.70 ----------- 11.85
2000 -----------18.50 ----------- 9.90
1999----------- 11.40 ----------- 9.95
1998----------- 10.30 ----------- 7.75
1997----------- 10.30 ---------- 8.55

I am attempting to find a chart (data) for historical ngas prices. My old link to one is no longer functional. In the mean time look to the following link for a graph of ngas prices back to 1988 CDN prices and NYMEX prices back to 1995. rudyard.ab.ca

Your concern was the price for the units were too high for current gas prices. Now using the prices for the units from the FP chart I post above. Compare the ngas prices from the graphs on the link I gave. The things to try to find are , a past price for ngas where it is now just over $2 US, and the unit price for the trust at that past price date.? If a past date unit price is higher than todays unit price given the same ngas price for both periods (today and the past date) then the unit price today may not be overvalued. If however the past date unit price is lower than todays unit price given the same ngas prices for both periods then the unit price today may be over valued.

Now this assumes that the unit price for SHN is 100% correlated to the price of ngas. That may not be the case. To find the correlation of unit price to ngas price it may be a good idea to do some correlation analysis on the above datas. 100% correlation may not be the case if SHN does not receive all its income from sales of ngas alone. Does it also sell other products even say distillates which are made from ngas but sold for higher prices. For these you would have to look at their annual and other financial reports. Or check their website.

Please be so kind as to post what it is you have found with this little exercise. If you are interested in doing it. It maybe of some help or not. This maybe a case of this kind of information being important to make a proper decision. As I pointed out in my previous post. Of course all of this is premised on the notion that you get out of something what you are willing to put into it. Doing the proper due diligence and getting a better return.
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