Dave Gore's Trades That Make Sense Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Dave Gore's Trades That Make Sense

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To: Dave Gore who wrote (1385)	1/25/2002 8:37:48 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) of 16631

I picked up expiry from the credit card business and some South African used the term. Zeev like the term (picked up from me) and uses it as well. As for MSFT I am very very pissed I did not buy a bunch of FEB puts when MSFT rallied to exactly 70. I did not know how far it would fall, but I was certain it would not close above 70 (Jan puts might not cover the premium). The results would have been spectacular. Probably 300% gains or better. It was a very very low risk play, just like your FNM calls and as much as I hate FNM I should have taken the calls on FNM as it did what we both expected well. Instead I bought puts on FNM at 83+ and cashed them out for tiny gains today. Did not have the advantage of cheap options in a expiry week. I followed you into HAL as I thought that was a fine idea but sold way way way too early. (how about a 50% gain instead of 400% when it first stalled and started to pull back a bit.) Very poor trading Last expiry there were some no brainers based on Put/Call ratios (I posted them but did not even take advantage myself). I think options are a great way to play but proper entries are critical. Right now we are just whipping back and for so I do not see any good plays right now. If we have a big bounce then near expiry there might be some decent plays. I do not see PMCS closing above 25 for example and if it rises above 25 then MAR 25 puts or 22 1/2 puts would be a decent play. Selling the Jan 25 calls would work as well but with more risk. In a sideways market you can see stocks stall and reverse every time if there is a huge # of calls on a stock at a price point. In a strong uptrend, these are taken out with ease. Right now I do not see a trend, I see chop, and that means stocks will not likley break out above huge call positions, or breakdown below huge put positions. Should have some better ideas of what I am looking for this weekend. Has Natural Gas bottomed? I really like EPEX if it has. There has to be some decent plays in that sector. M

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