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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory
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To: John Pitera who started this subject1/25/2002 8:52:37 PM
From: OX  Read Replies (2) of 33421
 
hi John,

re: below from briefing (my bolding)...

> It is very difficult to try and fight the defensive tone in Treasuries right
> now. However, we are not ready to abandon our expectations for a bullish curve
> flattening, as the market has yet to make a distinction between the
> inevitability of recovery and the quality of recovery. This is important when
> considering that the Eurodollar curve is pricing in some 200 bp worth of
> tightening by the end of the first quarter of next year. In addition, the
> resilience of the dollar only serves to highlight the deflationary pressures of
> globalization, particularly on the back of an unwillingness to delever from what
> we perceive to be a structurally weaker US demand profile.

those guys on the bond team are bright, but doesn't ED contain a cost-to-carry in their forward contracts?
I find it hard to believe a 200bp tightening over a years time.
tx for any insight.
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