Combined COT Update
Commercials are less short this week, but still significantly net short of course. The Large group continues to press the short side and the Smalls continue to lighten their long load.
COMMS LARGE SMALL
This Wk -63,679 +9.8% -9,002 -107.5% +72,680 -3.1%
Last Wk -70,636 -3.3% -4,339 +41.9% +74,975 -1.1%
3 Weeks -68,363 +11.3% -7,466 .... +75,830 -4.0%
4 Weeks -77,052 .... -1,928 .... +78,980 ....
A negative percentage indicates the group got shorter/less long and a positive percentage indicates they got longer/less short. Percentage change is not shown for small numbers.
Below is a crude chart showing the Commercials' short position since the extreme set at the Mar 6, 2001 report. The vertical axis is the number of contracts short and the horizontal is a column for each week.
135,000 :
130,000 |
125,000 |
120,000 |
115,000 ||
110,000 ||
105,000 || |
100,000 || : .||
95,000 || | : .|. ::...||| .
90,000 || |::| |||.|||||||| ||
85,000 ||: ||||..||||||||||||. .|||
80,000 ||| : ||||||||||||||||||| .||||..
75,000 |||| |.| ||||||||||||||||||| |||||||
70,000 |||| ||| ||||||||||||||||||| ||||||||:|
65,000 |||||||| |||||||||||||||||||| :||||||||||:
60,000 |||||||| |||||||||||||||||||||: ||||||||||||
55,000 ||||||||.|||||||||||||||||||||||||:||||||||||||
50,000 |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
A reminder that my numbers are based on S&P contract equivalents by taking all the index futures (DJ, RL, MD, SP, SP mini, ND, ND mini) and then weighting and combining the positions.
Note as well that the COT report, although released on Fridays, is as of the prior Tuesday's close.
Commercials change in individual markets from last week:
SP+es ND+nq DJ MD RL
+10.4% +38.2% +6.7% .... +4.2%
The MidCap's went from slightly net long last week to net short again. Perhaps the quick trip to net long is a one week phenomenon, as we saw for the May 1, 2001 report where the string of net short positions was interrupted by a single week of covering. The last 3 weeks in the MD contract for the Commercials net position are (oldest first): -1703,83,-1912
(See the message I am replying to for the previous update. ccoott) |
