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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!
LRCX 139.28-6.4%3:58 PM EST
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To: Robert Douglas who wrote (10083)1/26/2002 9:39:28 AM
From: Proud_Infidel  Read Replies (1) of 10921
 
I'd add CYMI to the list.

While I agree with Scott 100% regarding Cary's unbridled arrogance, I will have to admit that I have pared back my CYMI holdings over the past year based on the fact that any advancements in cutting edge chipmaking may not need CYMI's expertise, namely lasers for DUV or EUV lithography. While that is still a ways off because EUV should get us down to .03 micron line-widths (or thereabout), (1) the market looks far out and will not reward CYMI with any generous multiples given that their "pipeline" of products has a finite existence and should run out within this decade(at least for critical dimension technology), and (2)leading-edge chipmakers have been exceeding the projections from SEMI and others for critical line-widths for several years now. Number two makes number one all the more likely. In essence, time itself is a threat to CYMI unless the trend of the semiconductor manufacturers changes anytime soon.

While I still hold some CYMI shares, they are a fraction of what they once were, and I do not believe I could justify additional purchases regardless of what EPS may be since I view them as hitting a wall so to speak, not too long from now. I may be wrong(and very well may be), but it is only because I am extremely cautious about being on the wrong side of the bet for next-next generation chipmaking.

FWIW.

Brian
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