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Gold/Mining/Energy : Canadian REITS, Trusts & Dividend Stocks

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To: Lorne Larson who wrote (2533)	1/26/2002 9:57:31 AM
From: Peter W. Panchyshyn	Read Replies (2) of 11633

I'm a little worried about NG prices. Looks like we're going to drop through $2.00 on the U.S. market for the first time in what, 3 years? ------------- Just to give the REAL DOCUMENTED FACTS. Look to the link rudyard.ab.ca and in particular the graph entitled """" NYMEX GAS PRICES """"" concentrate on the year 2001 area. What do you see? Late in the year ngas prices fell below the $2 mark. Then recovered quickly to over $3 then moved again to the low $2 area then to climb to near $3. Now look back to the rest of the graph. Going back to 1995. What do you see? Ngas prices bouncing in this area for the majority of the time period except for the abberrent period late 2000 to early 2001. Which in itself can not be truly considered indicative of average historical past ngas prices, longer term. ---------- So indeed since this is clearly NOT the first time in 3 years the price has fallen to these levels or lower. What does that mean to the trusts? And considering many of these trusts were selling ngas at the lower prices in those past years. And still selling it more importantly above their costs of production. And passing on that income to unitholders. What is to be WORRIED ABOUT? The cycling exhibited has not stopped and will not stop. Income delivered has not stopped and will not stop. Sure at times it (the income) will be lower but at other times it will be higher. And it will do that repeatedly. Because that is what it has always done. And the unit prices of the trusts will reflect this cycling themselves lower and higher. The question remains as to if it is better for joe average to try to trade this cycling and get better returns. Which the documented evidence suggests is not the absolute certainty that some portray it to be. Especially for joe average who doesn't have the time , the dedication , or the methodology to carry out and get those results. Even should joe average decide to follow "a superior trader " if one exists here. Which the documented evidence shows clearly there is not. A joe average will do so not at the same time as the trader but only after he has posted his intentions. Which may be days after the trader has done so. AFTER THE FACT. As in Lornes posting claims of trades shorts in post # 2519. The only documented ones are for sep 11 when we have documented confirmation of his shorting. And oct 02 when we have documented confirmation of his closing out. He claims to have shorted actually first on sept 06 a full 5 days previous to his post. Meaning that someone who follows his advice and shorts does so at not the same price and most certainly not with the same results. That being a FACT. Puts Lornes worse case returns for following his advice not at a small gain. BUT AT A REAL LOSS. If one would care to examine the documented evidence of such.

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