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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA

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To: High-Tech East who wrote (9889)1/26/2002 10:18:38 AM
From: J.T.  Read Replies (1) of 19219
 
You are not wrong. Pro-forma earnings are market bubble earnings. I believe MSFT this past reporting period made the transition to the more conservative GAAP earnings and you will see this gradual transition moving into 2003 as earnings improve. Most will dare not do it yet in the next quarter maybe two until earnings and earnings visiblity improve drastically.

First Call says markets move higher when earnings are growing flat with expectations of improving over the next 12 - 18 months out. As the earnings grow by 20% + as they did in April 2000 reporting period... it is as if you have climbed the top of the mouintain and you have nowhere to go back down.

Even McMillan is looking for a lower low (SPX 900 area)in the market vs. September 21. He thinks he is in the minority view but many Bears on SI and CB eschew that view. I think rydex sentiment says we have a snowballs chance in hell of SPX 900 right now with current TA levels.

I believe higher lows SPX 1,060 -1,080 area as mentioned in previous post that we will hit in March and potentially April. But only after we cross SPX 1,200 level first.

Best Regards, J.T.
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