Larry--
Right now due to slow capitol spending in telecom sector telecom, vendors are on the black list.
By the second half of 2002 this situation will change, when new cycle of upgrade will come. Even Sagawa believe in such scenario.
SI is industrial company. like GE. They are 3-rd grade telecom company, without optical portfolio, IP+ATM, poor fast internet access,
2-nd rate wireless (ALA is in wireless 2-nd rate too). Major portion of revenue comes from domestic customers and lots of gears are resell (like CSCO enterprise in
Europe) with very low margins. Major customers like DT is shifting big accounts from SI to ALA , b/c SI lack of products (DT is building major broadband(date , voice, image etc.) network for wire and wireless exclusively on ALA, for example IP+ATM is heavily used in wireless. SI does not have migration path from old voice network to voice and data over packet. Large carriers are not going to
write down old network anytime sson. Voice over IP+ATM saves tons of $, so do optical network.
Wait when lots of TV content will trevel over optical network. This will eat capacity very quickly.
ALA is call 4-th biggest phone company in Europe, despite fact that based on the last 4 quarters it is the biggest telecom vendor in the world.
Just look at total revenue ( in US $). Handset products accounts for 3-4% of total revenue.
In current Q, revenue is projected to be 10% up from Q3, and I did not hear any warning, did you?
I expect Q1 to be historically down.
It is like semi industry. When up cycle comes they outperform the rest.
Even conservative analysts agree that over the next 5-6 year telecom spending will grow 12-14%. Leaders will grow faster.
On the other hand industrial company will grow much less.
SI is theh leader as an industrial company and big follower in telecom space.
Have a Good weekend
ZO
P.S.
you owe an explanation as to how and why you claim that "ALA will significantly outperform SI."
I do not own anything to anybody. It is up to me to answer your question. |
