I listened to FNSR talk at the RBC conference. They were very proud of the fact that they were the ONLY optics company at the Data storage conference. Also that telco may be down, but it would not affect them, even though they stated that Nortels CWDM Optera system never sold well because of cost so they are selling a FNSR based system now.
So optical interconnects will come in to play in the I/O space also. I wait for 13410 VCSELs this Q. Here is some interesting market data...
Transmitter/receiver market for fiber-optics will reach $20.5 billion by 2006
Date Announced: 16-01-2002
San Mateo, CA. According to ElectroniCast's new Fiber Optic Optoelectronic Transmitter/Receiver Global Market Forecast, the global consumption of fiber optic optoelectronic transmitter/receiver pairs (T/R pair) used for communication applications in 2001 was $4.0 billion. The consumption value will increase at an annual growth rate of 39 percent per year over the next five years, to $20.5 billion in 2006, with strongly rising quantity growth partially offset by a decline in average prices.
"The global optoelectronic transmitter/receiver pair consumption is driven by a dramatic increase in bandwidth demand beyond the limits of copper," ElectroniCast's President Stephen Montgomery said. "Technological advances in fiber optics is assuring the migration of fiber closer and closer to the end user. This translates into demand for shorter links where transmitter/receiver pairs represent a substantial share of the total installation cost. The cost concerns are being addressed with the introduction of smaller, lower cost and easier to install transceivers," Montgomery said.
North America led in global consumption with 45 percent or $1.79 billion in 2001. North American consumption will expand in value to $9.4 billion by 2006. North American optoelectronic consumption (use) will be driven by the proliferation of relatively shorter links used in private data and local loop networks. European optoelectronic consumption reaching 22 percent in 2006, will be led by the European Union member states as they transition to open competition in delivery of broadband services to both business and residential customers. Japan/Pacific Rim will demonstrate very strong growth; especially in China for expensive long-haul links.
ElectroniCast's study segments the global fiber optic optoelectronic transmitter/receiver pair consumption into the following major application categories:
a. Telecommunications
b. Private data networks
c. Cable TV
d. Other (Military/Aerospace plus Specialty plus Non-production)
Domestic consumption includes imported optoelectronics (not embedded in equipment or higher level assembly when shipped), as well as optoelectronics produced in domestic facilities for end use by that country or used in equipment/components produced for domestic consumption or export.
"The fastest fiber optic optoelectronics growth (consumption growth) over the next five years will be in private data communication networks, subscriber distribution and military/aerospace applications. In these markets, especially over the next five years, fiber optics must compete against the cost of unshielded and shielded twisted pair copper wire and coaxial cable, with the low-cost copper electronic terminations and connectors. These are applications initially dominated by low data rates up to 1 Gbps and short to moderate length links (up to a few hundred meters)," Montgomery said.
The Fiber Optic Optoelectronic Transmitter Global Market Forecast is available for US $12,000.
Optics may be down 'cause of the telco slump, but some segments of optics; those related to automated assembly of tranceivers may do OK? I have stayed away from FNSR because of the HUGE number of shares in the company.
FNSR just built a factory in Malaysia while companies like Q get to sign contracts with the taiwan foundries
and don't have to run the factory. Will Flextronics and the like move into assembly of these devices for others.
Is there any other way to play this rapid growth in transceivers? |
