Greenie, Bum:
Two good posts on the homebuilders. I think the medium term outlook for homebuilders is little short of disastrous and anyone buying BZH at $79-81 is just repeating the error of buying CSCO at $79-81 in 2000. For those of you who have forgotten what that looked like, here's a little picture:
stockcharts.com[h,a]maclyiay[pb20!b10!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!Ua12,26,9!Lh14,3!Lc5!Ll14!Lj[$spx]]
However, I have come to the same conclusion as Bum on the current, short-term direction of the builders and will sit on the sideline until the charts show me it's time to risk my capital on the play. The play, imho, has only one direction, and BZH may be forming the head of its head 'n shoulders top this very minute, but because it could just be a continuation pattern on the way to $90 or $95, I'm sitting out this hand, getting a Pepsi from the kitchen, stretching my legs and watching the rest of the guys at the table with their cards and cigars.
Kb |
