part technical, part visceral, part fundamental, both subjective and objective. and i truly am not trying to be elusive.
many of my reasons have been elaborated in prior posts. in an attempt to put it as simply as possible, the market has had far more reasons to go down. despite a tremendous amount of negative news, earnings and events, the capital markets remain resilient.
leading indicators are now showing an end to the recession. i personally believe the ECRI, they have helped me be on the correct side of the tape for quite awhile. at worst, assuming this fact to be accurate (of course i know that a vast majority on this thread do not and therefore will immediately reject my statements), then we get lateral consolidation on the major indices.
i spend a lot of time watching the tape, and when we get pops i see volume. when we get downs, i don't see the same volume. and my next risque statement is this: imo there is no way that an amazon.com makes a net profit in a pre-tank environment. i don't care about their 20% on a euro carry trade. i don't care about the declining rev's in their core business. i don't care about the layoffs or cuts in employee option packages. these guys just do not make a net profit in a pre-tank market. no way.
i am not making a statement that we are in a long term bull market. i am merely saying that at this point, the economy has changed character and the market has reflected that. now, the economy may change again, and if so the market will head down.
i posted this to allan on the ecfz, in the end we all must rely on our own instincts and interpretation. today, what this means to me is that the long trade is more profitable than the short. that's where i want to be. |
