Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!

LRCX 148.83

+3.9%

Nov 19 3:59 PM EST

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To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (10100)	1/26/2002 1:44:16 PM
From: Robert Douglas	Read Replies (2) of 10921

Hi Brian, ...advancements in cutting edge chipmaking may not need CYMI's expertise, namely lasers for DUV or EUV lithography. While that is still a ways off because EUV should get us down to .03 micron line-widths (or thereabout), ... I'll defer to anyone with more expertise than I have, but it was my understanding that DUV would go to .03 micron and then EUV still further. There was a slide in the recent Needham presentation, but I checked Cymer's website and it has expired. Furthermore, I remember EUV didn't use excimer lasers but some other source. Cymer does claim to be the leader in EUV. Your point however was that Cymer's technology has limits and that it will eventually be replaced. I think this is true not only for Cymer, but for almost every technology. I think Cymer compares very favorably to other companies in visibility of technological obsolescence. Whether it's Intel v. AMD or disc drives v. flash and optical, almost every technology has threats. So what you say is true, but the same argument can be used against investment in almost every tech company that I can think of. This exact argument is one that Warren Buffett uses against investment in all technology companies. Maybe he's right and we are all crazy for trying to do the impossible by picking winners in technologies that haven't even been invented yet. My own opinion is that Cymer is entering it's glory days and that its earnings will explode during the coming cycle. I will be very surprised if the market doesn't do what it always does and values current earnings rather than showing caution about the end of that earnings stream.

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