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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics
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To: Math Junkie who wrote (24789)1/26/2002 2:25:58 PM
From: Zeev Hed  Read Replies (6) of 99280
 
To have a "double dip" you must have a recovery first, and that is what my current thinking is taking into account. Referring to stocks however, they have mostly discounted that recovery (bottom in September, recovery starts around March/May). The decline I expect into late June will be discounting the second dip starting possibly late in 2002 or early 2003. The second dip is supposed to be associated with retrenchment by consumers (unlike the first dip which was mostly a capex/inventory correction). I alluded to excess capex early in 2000 in the April 2000 post: #reply-13483082

Zeev
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