John,
Intel is such a big company, that other semis may follow their lead, as far as moving to 300mm and die shrinks. Capex budgets are not set in stone. They are targets, and companies change them, if they see changed conditions. The pattern is, that semi-equip stocks closely follow changes in semi-equip bookings. In turn, bookings follow fundamentals of the semi industry. So, when semis start to see pricing power return, increased capacity utilization, margins stabilizing, sales coming back, then it is a very good bet that they will be increasing capex budgets soon (months, not years). And I am seeing those signs, now.
The other thing to consider is that the simple passage of time fixes problems in this industry. Bookings cannot stay at the 600-700M level for years. There has to be a rebound in bookings (probably in 2002, in early 2003 at the latest, IMO). This is because semi-equipment goes obsolete quickly.
I read analysts and the business press for the facts they contain. Their interpretations and forecasts are useless. |
