Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!

LRCX 139.60

-6.2%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (10108)	1/26/2002 2:56:38 PM
From: Robert Douglas	Read Replies (1) of 10921

Correct my impressions, please! Gladly, although they appear quite acute. 1) ASPs are rising, almost 20% this year. Expected to keep rising to around $900,000 in 4 years as mix shifts to new lasers which are higher priced. 2) Unit growth in industry expected to rise to almost 1,000 units by 2005-6. This will be driven by smaller line widths on more and more layers. 3) Spares and service business expected to rise to 50% of sales due to installed base. 4) Margins expected to rise due to higher ASP and higher spares and service proportion which is higher margin business. 5) Cymer should keep market share because they are only producer able to produce in quantity and only producer that can offer end customer fast response service. This is a formidable barrier to entry. Add it up. Unit growth X ASP growth X Margin growth + Service growth and you get explosive growth in sales and earnings. I don't see another semi/equip stock that possesses this type of growth potential with this type of market dominance. As I said earlier, I think this will be the best performing stock in the coming cycle.

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