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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace

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To: sun-tzu who wrote (29359)	1/26/2002 8:53:35 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (2) of 209892

The problem with the ECRI is embedded in this paragraph: ECRI's index includes seven components, five of which are seldom if ever subject to revision. The seven components are: the Mortgage Bankers Association's home purchase index, money supply, stock prices, initial jobless claims, corporate yield spreads (inverted), and corporate bond quality spreads. and completely ignores actual debt, not to mention P/E ratios of the stock market. In spring 2000 every one on WS told us there are different times ........ and so is the situation now. The US will have weak recoveries and more shalow recession similar to Japan. At the moment the strong dollar save the day the question is..... will it last. Continuing growth in money supply above GDP levels will not help the USD. A weak USd will trigger inflation and higher interest rates and the ECRI indicator will turn on it's head. BWDIK Haim

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