Zeev's Turnips - No Politics Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics

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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (24790)	1/27/2002 8:19:16 AM
From: GREENLAW4-7	Read Replies (1) of 99280

Zeev here is my argument as to why we head lower into summer........... KB, I picked up that VIX sign also last friday. I wrote a piece about why the HB's have moved since December, and I will tell you very simply. Many economic sensative sectors that ususally rebound in the early stages of an economic recovery have been doing well over last 2.5 months. This is based on the thought we have already started out rise from the bear ashes. This is a based on several economic indicators that came out early late Novemeber and Early in December. This is why those NUMBERS are FAlse indicators. The effect of 9/11 actually HALTED our economy, in ways that we have never seen in the last 50 years. If we did not have such an event, the numbers would have been slowly but surely showing the errosion in our economy..and in particular UNEMPLOYMENT. But the numbers that came out after 9/11 showed an uptick..based on such a substantial DOWNTICK. Many of our friends in the press and CNBC, as well as the Analyst community have used these FALSE NUMBERS to show the recession is over and a recovery is at hand. This was why we never had a pull back in Novemeber and December. The CONSPIRACY was out and what a FANTASTIC time to have a FALSE BABY BULL PARTY..as the retirement funds flowed into IRA's. If you look at the numbers, I believe we actually has a NET OUTFLOW from Mutual Funds in December, and I bet it may be the same for January..but you won't hear CNBC tell you that! Now the economy has adjusted to 9/11, we can again continue our slow but steady erosion in the economy. This was what Greenspan spoke of just 3 weeks ago. He then explained the effects of the Housing bubble, abd if you listened carefully it was evident then as was recently that this is an ANOMOLIE that has never happened before. ( ie. IT WILL NOT LAST..) This was my aggument to some degree about energy consumption and why I shorted the OSX at 90 area. Nothing has changed and as the coming weeks go by the numbers will show we are still in a declining...but very close to flat..economy waiting for the next shoe to drop..CONSUMER! I believe RETAIL should be in the same boat as the builders. I plan on starting short postions this week, and I am TARGETING....TARGET! Good luck all! Edit Your Message (15 minutes left) \| View Next 10 Messages \| Previous \| Next Remove Bookmark Ignore this Person Report a TOU violation View SubjectMarks

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