Greenie,
If you're right (actually I think it's a question of "when" you're right, that is, timing rather than analysis) then I might be a dollar late to the shorting party, which will be your reward for being "out there" early. Well earned, too.
I do not see the homebuilders shorting party as a mere $2-3 party, but something rather more substantial. Someone sneered at my comparing BZH to Cisco, but just look at the numbers and draw your own conclusions. BZH will fall even faster because there are no true adherents, no one has "drunk the Kool Aid" on homebuilders the way they did on tech and telecom.
Retail is interesting, but why target TGT? I think the most worthless retailers are those which are least essential, least blue collar. Why short Wal-Mart Shopko or Target when you can take aim at Nike, The Gap, ANF, Pacific Sunwear and a host of other consumption based rather than necessity/bargain based retailers? What about the dinosaurs, like Sears, Montgomery Ward (oops, gone already), Federated yada yada yada?
Just some ideas, I haven't even pulled up the symbols or charts on these guys.
In any event, you and I have been thinking TOO much alike recently (Osx, builders, retailers). It's a little scary.
Kb |
