[RumorDude]
Sun Jan 27, 4:24am PST $VIX.X
Over the past few weeks, I've been making various comments regarding VIX and what it could mean for the markets. Again, I see VIX heading to that scary 20 level which many people use as the trigger point. now apparent failed breakout of the downtrend (one might see a nice descending triangle) suggests that indeed there could be some ugly looking times coming up. With the many of the big-wig earnings names selling off, I don't see the small fries causing this market to suddenly accelerate. I'd speculate that indeed, we are reaching a "complacency" zone. With only about 33% retracement from the Sept lows, I am now moving over towards the "W" camp: I fail to see any exciting catalysts coming up that could be just cause for the markets to go significantly higher, but there does appear to be indications we will head lower or stay the same. Now is probably a good time to write some slightly out-of-the-money calls on the investments you own, and I will be looking to hedge some downside protection over the next few days. Keep in mind that while this post is coming to you at a lovely 4:30 AM PST, I'm just a few blocks from the ASX exchange here in Australia right now, so it's really 11:30 PM. ;) none, yet...
[madtrader]
Sat Jan 26, 7:48am PST AMZN
This past week is a monumental week for AMZN, not just in terms of fundamental, but in technical terms as well. After years of promise and hype, they finally delivered their first profit. Not accounting gimmick type of phantom profit, but real cold hard cash. Enough of that, and a lot of people surely will laugh at the idea of making $5 million after losing $3 billion as a victory. And I won't disagree. But stocks looks forward, not backwards. And the future looks bright, until 45 that is. I mumbled last week about AMZN going to $50, that was just a gut feeling type of call at the time. After further checking long term charts. Using both regular and log scale, it is undeniable that AMZN has broken the death spiral down trend. All with a great deal of volume and conviction. The down trend started way back near the end of 1999 when the stock was trading close to century mark. For "long term" type of investor/speculators, the first level of Fibonacci retracement is at 61.8%, which is near 45. If you don't care for the daily gamesmanship that traders like me do for a living, you should sit tight on AMZN shares and assess matters until it reaches near 45. There is no doubt this stock will be as volatile as it has been in the past. But the massive weekly volume suggests that institutions that have abandoned the stock is back. Both the "growth" and "value" variety. already long. |
