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Since Oakley has broken through 13, we have not yet seen it retreat to what I believe is its support of 12 5/8-12 3/4. The lowest it has retreated is about its low today. Since I'm hoping it to breakout on earnings and then pop on upgrades, it seemed a good time to buy. Of course, it may go lower and test support. It could even break that support. But, in the last 6 weeks OO has always popped on high volume and I don't know when the next high volume pop will be, maybe before earnings, probably not. Perhaps, now that I've bought more options, the stock will tank. I know minutes after I sold 1K shares at 12 1/2 to rebuy around 12, it popped 1 1/2 pts and hasn't broken below 13. I feel as comfortable as I can with a large position for me in OO knowing that Jannard has a ton of stock and is in control. I feel relatively comfortable with earnings outlook because of opening new markets like Japan this quarter, more retail outlets, manufacturing around the clock and new products being well received according to reports, and opening the OO sunglass market to women which is adding 50% to your target market. The estimate is 40% less than they made last year at this time so I hope it is a low street estimate that is easy to make (but know that they only made .01 last qtr) Also, I feel that the street is interested in shades and has a focus on shades now and feels that it's a hot area so they're watching closing and especially like the high end b/c of greater growth where Oakley is. What I don't know is how OO's acquisition during the quarter will affect earnings per share. And there is a lot of other things unknown to me too. You're absolutely right that it is not a sure thing, but there may not be any sure things in the market. At least, none that I know, not even KO.. I fervently hope that OO will make up for a lot of market mistakes and not become one. I do think it's a reasonable gamble and it has shown strength. Ride/Add to the winners and Cut your losses--- one way to go. |
