For those who refuse to get tetanus shots and venture over to Yahoo, the following is a post from a regular that knows his "stuff" about BTRN.
"Wall Street Clueless on MEDI-507
by: soldier30
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 01/27/02 11:01 pm
Msg: 1491 of 1494
In my opinion, analysts on the buy-side and the sell-side still have minimal appreciation of MEDI-507's potential:
-many analysts peg this drug as having a $300 MM peak market potential--
--are they insane??--there are 7 million psoriasis patients in the US alone and according to a number of reports in the medical literature, 25-30% of this group has moderate-to-severe disease--at an annual cost of approximately $10,000-$12,000, only 25,000-30,000 patients would need to be treated yearly to generate 300MM in sales--hence, the Street is suggesting that the peak penetration of 507 is only 25,000 of the 1.75 MM patients with moderate-to-severe psoriasis???--this constitutes only 1/70th of the target population!!--
Obviously, I believe this number is way, way off--
Consider this:
1) it took Biogen over 10 months to enroll 1000 patients in their Phase 3 trial using 100 sites (trial started in early December, 1999 and enrollment, not dosing, was completed by mid-october 2000)--this comes out to 1 patient per site per month
--MEDI-507 completed enrollment in its 420-patient trial over 102 days using 44 sites--this comes out to an average of 2.8 patients per site per month, nearly triple the enrollment rate
Why? perhaps it's simply more effective recruiting by MEDI's investigators; perhaps they were incentivized better (more money, perhaps)--possible, but doubtful--my contacts at a number of trial sites have commented that word spread very quickly in the psoriasis community about MEDI-507's effects; there have been substantial numbers of patients who cleared or nearly cleared and many patients clamored to enroll....
2) Amevive's last trials demonstrated only 21% PASI 75 with the IM formulation and 14% with the IV regimen; dose response-relationship was consistently lacking in past trials--a "middle-level" dose of Phase 2 trials was used for Phase 3 trials--MEDI-507 has thus far shown a 39% PASI 75 response at the highest doses utilized thus far and a consistent dose-response relationship was evident all the way to the highest doses tested--in fact, the maximum tolerated dose was not achieved in the Phase I/II trials and the dose continues to be pushed upward--
--hence, there is a good chance that MEDI-507's efficacy could be substantially better than Amevive--mechanistically, there is good reason to beleive this as well
(not to mention the drug's potential in psoriatic arthritis, RA, T-cell malignancies, IBD and MS)
To all of the non-believers in MEDI-507: if you are short, you are heading toward a major cataclysm beginning on February 20th ; if you are not yet in the stock, you may be missing a promising opportunity.... |
