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Technology Stocks : Cohu, Inc. (COHU)
COHU 23.47-1.2%9:30 AM EST
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To: Gottfried who wrote (2629)1/28/2002 9:48:12 AM
From: robert b furman  Read Replies (1) of 7827
 
Hi G,

It seems, over the years we've waited so long for copper inteconnect and 300 mm to boost orders(in addition to) orders coming in from capacity expansion,that now that they are the only order out there saving the day - we become numb to the value of these upgrade technology orders.

I find two positives views from this:
1) like James Morgan says "they'll all order at the same time".Intels announcement that their 02 orders will be down MUST be kept in perspective -THEY'RE WAY OUT IN FRONT.Amd's announcement that they will actually increase eqipment orders in o2 is more reflective of where the other 80% of the competition is - PLAYING CATCH UP.

2) In all cases I think it makes the back end THE PLACE TO BE.Most of the .13 micron designs are tested at such high frequencies - they must be cooled during the test.This is the lone niche of Cohu.I suspect the new technology is resulting in additional orders of testhandlers.The doubling of yields from the 300 mm wafer has to bode well for the number of testhandlers and testers - whose thruput is not is not changed by the 300 mm wafers.

I think both of these viewpoints puts us in a need to be invested in semi equip cos., regardless of how much Intel is reducing their Capex plans for 02.

JMHO

P.S. I agree with the reducing shipment change - soon it will be positive.Soon is within 6 months and by then current valuations will be looked back at and people will say "wished I had bought way back then when they were obviously so cheap". Of course such is the nature of hindsight.
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