Complacency Indexes Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Complacency Indexes

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To: bob wallace who wrote (418)	1/28/2002 10:39:11 AM
From: TechTrader42	Read Replies (2) of 1487

You thought it might do that, and it would appear that you were right. But it's going to have trouble going a lot lower. Look at the low from July 2001. The low 43s will provide strong resistance. Note how the Naz isn't really moving, despite the strong move down in the VXN. The divergence could mean several things (opposite things, naturally: weakness in the Naz, or an impending move up in the Naz). I wonder what explains the move down in the VXN today. What would explain the strong optimism among options traders? Anyway, here are the CI's for now and Friday: ST Naz CI: 100.000 91.879 MT Naz CI: 100.000 91.879 LT Naz CI: 100.000 98.906 ST S&P CI: 81.203 98.496 MT S&P CI: 81.203 98.496 LT S&P CI: 97.884 99.831 To me, the CI's suggest the obvious. Full moon today, too. Greenspin said it best recently: "The markets have been assuming a far more rapid snapback than I have."

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