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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Bob Rudd who wrote (13803)	1/28/2002 1:15:44 PM
From: Keith J	Read Replies (1) of 79096

Yeah, but will the kids be able to live without their AOL IMs and chatting? That to me is the question. Plus, it appears that broadband penetration is going to be slower than previously thought, absent any major government initiatives (and most likely rural areas will not have any broadband option except satellite). So while subscriber growth may slow, as long as AOL retains membership, they should be in pretty good shape. Just an off the cuff calculation: 33 million AOL members (assume worth $2,000 per member) 12.7 million AOL-TW cable subscribers (assume worth $4,000 per subscriber) Networks (assume worth $20 billion) Film (assume worth $10 billion) Other (assume worth $5 billion) Total = $152 billion Or roughly $30 per share, after subtracting out $20 billion in LT debt. Not a screaming bargain, but not ridiculously overvalued at this level either. Writing covered calls may be the best way to play this. Hard to tell how market will react to earnings release this week. Will success of Harry Potter offset potential goodwill writeoff? That's my 2 cents. KJ

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