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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna
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To: William H Huebl who wrote (894)7/2/1997 7:42:00 PM
From: Stratajema   of 94695
 
William. You said >> That's EXACTLY what I am expecting, Only I can just guess at the date and speed of the sell-off. <<

All markets based on speculation correct eventually and every experienced investor and fund manager over the age of 30 knows this. I would imagine you are feeling some heat in your office for trying to call the top and encourage people to exit the long side of trades. It's not that your ideas are wrong its your timing. But in your defense no one on Wall Street is willing to publicly call the top any longer.

Trying to time the Big Kahuna is useless. Knowing the big kahuna will come eventually is what's important and this implies that truly experienced investors should have a hedge portfolio in a frothy market. They should also practice taking profits and this seems to be the most difficult action for smaller, less experienced investors.

To continue to time the Big K in the overall market means people will continue to lose money foolishly on out of the money puts. I think trying to 'time' the Big K in individual stocks/sectors might be an easier task but even this can be a dangerous path around demonic stocks such as AOL.

Good luck to ya. I hope those Bay puts pay off as the momentum geeks have really pushed that one up too far.

- David
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