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Technology Stocks : Leap Wireless International (LWIN)

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To: Maurice Winn who wrote (1175)1/28/2002 4:15:45 PM
From: pcstel  Read Replies (3) of 2737
 
YEAH!! Maurice is here! Welcome aboard Maurice. BTW. Sorry for the way Rono was chaffing you over on the Nextwave board. Maybe he does not appreciate your "volumes". Some people don't appreciate conversationalist. But, you are welcome over here!

Looks like Nextwave will now become Nowave. Even Qualcomm has cold feet on their financing commitments. You can be sure the others are right behind Qualcomm.

Now, back to you question.. "that assumes that Verizon and Sprint don't undercut Leap in the cities."

Are you talking data or voice? On voice. The answer is easy.. Why would a LEC like Verizon cannibalize their wireless buisiness so it could in turn cannibalize their LEC wireline business. After all. CricKet is all about getting rid of your wireline appendages.

I can see it now.. Call us now at Verizon. You get all you can talk wireless voice services that offers much larger free local calling areas than our wireline service provides, for only $25 per month.. That's right.. Unlimited talk time for only $25 per month. Sure we know our Wireless ARPU are going to dive in half. But, to make that up, if you call before midnight tonight.. We will even disconnect your wireline service from Verizon for FREE!!

And as far as increasing utilizaton.. You should go check out what a Sprint Affiliate's Airgate PCS cost of service are.

From the 10-K

Year ending Sept. 30, 2001

Service revenue................................ $ 105,976
Roaming revenue................................ 55,329
Total......................................................$ 161305

Operating expenses:
Cost of service and roaming.................... (116,732)

Cost of service 72% of Revenues

CricKet (Q3)

Service Revenues........................... $57,240,000
Cost of service....................................$27,297,000

Cost of Service 47% of Revenues

Good Luck on that concept.

The other point is that Sprints network is built for coverage, not capacity like CricKet. To compete with CricKet they would have to modify their networks to some extent. Spend CapEX so you can reduce ARPU, get rid of contracts, and pick up more low end users?

I am not saying it won't happen.. But, there is not much of a business case for it!

What have you been doing lately? Thought that maybe you had an accident out in the shed with the beer cooler? Are you making the trip over this year for the meeting downtown?

PCSTEL
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