Shane,
I ran through the ROE histories and "Buffettology"
spreadsheet calculations for your companies.
I discarded APOL, JHKY and CTSH as mentioned before.
I discarded ADRX, MTD for too short histories.
From the remaining CHKP, WAT and AEOS are the
most attractive with ~17-19% projected annual return.
However, all of them have warts:
CHKP - unsustainable average ROE of 33%, if it drops to 25%, the projected return drops to 10%. Foreign company.
WAT - short history, spiky ROE, possibly unsustainable average ROE of 29%, if it drops to 25%, the projected return drops to 13%.
AEOS - trendy retailer, possibly unsustainable average ROE of 24%, if it drops to 20%, the projected return drops to 11%.
A notch below is CDWC. BBBY is not interesting at all.
I have NOT yet considered the very important issue of
the moat and/or brand. I have not looked into recent
filings - except for CHKP - and recent news. I have not
looked into different share classes - did you do that
with APOL?
I may look at these things for CHKP, AEOS and WAT.
Any comments are welcome.
Jurgis |
