Dan, et al,
Thank you for your comments/thoughts. I have the same questions when I look at a chart of CRB but Farber's projections have a better record than I do.
I didn't find any mention of gold, beyond the quotes of its price, in Barron's this week. The only Round Table participant that mentioned it, and indirectly, was Farber.
Eric Fry, of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, had some interesting comments in today's The Daily Reckoning. I attached the relevant comments below.
The GMI/POG ratio:
On 01/24, the Barron's GMI was 335.53 down from the previous week's value of 346.24. With the POG down to 279.00 (0/25), the ratio was down to 1.20.
The ratio a year previously was 1.01.
Cheers,
Larry
From the Daily Reckoning:
"- Meanwhile, over in the gold market there is neither conflict nor interest of any kind. The yellow metal has become a kind of financial "shut-in" - no one seems to care about it whatsoever.
- Instead, the long list of contrary indicators that seemed certain to presage a major rally in the gold market keeps growing longer and longer. It's been more than a couple years since the Financial Times boldly declared the "Death of Gold." And still, #79 on the Periodic Table of Elements has not stirred from its lengthy slumber.
- Two weeks ago, Alan Greenspan seemed to go out of his way to deny gold its historic role as the currency of last resort. The central-banker-turned-standup-comedian quipped, "If the evident recent success of fiat money regimes falters, we may have to go back to seashells or oxen as our medium of exchange. In that unlikely event, I trust, the discount window of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York will have an adequate inventory of oxen."
- Then last week, adding insult to insult, long-time gold analyst Andy Smith from Mitsui Global Precious Metals informed the New York Times that gold is "yesterday's money." He punctuated his declaration by saying, "I doubt whether we'll have three digits in this price in 5 or 10 years." Presumably, the perennially bearish Smith was not predicting $1,000 gold, but $99 gold...best case!
- Could the sentiment in the gold market be any more bearish? Or, to put it another way, are there any contrary indicators left?
- The gold market is a Bermuda Triangle for contrary indicators. Eventually - you would think - there will be a point at which the sentiment simply cannot become any worse. We must be getting close when the chairman of the
Federal Reserve implies that seashells are more valuable than gold." |
