Zeev's Turnips - No Politics Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics

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To: Steve Lee who started this subject	1/28/2002 6:49:42 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (5) of 99280

Trin Thinking On March 16th, 2001, the ten day > 1.50 trin bell went off and it was expiration Friday. It took four days to work through the down and so it continued the following week before a bounce. Five months later, in August, and also during expiration week, the ten day trin > 1.50 bell rang again and the weakness took four days to work through and ran into the following week. Move ahead five months later, and we find ourselves in January where the same bell rang again January 16th, also during expiration week. On both prior occasions, the rally was complete within 7 - 8 days at which point the market sold off into the end of the month and continued selling off into the next month. We had our April and September lows after the March and August trin bells rang and we had the interlude bounces/rallies off the March and August lows. One difference between this January's occurrence and the pior two was the placement of the Federal Reserve meeting. Yes, both of those prior occasions had FRB meetings that coincided with the bottom and those bottoms were around March 20th and August 21st. But this time the meeting is at the end of the month (this Wednesday) and it seems we have had the short term bottom last week and we are eight days from when the day the ten day Trin bell rang. The nasdaq performance the past three trading days mirrors the trading in those two rallies that marked the top. There was a tight trading range that went nowhere for three to four days and that was it and those rallies peaked and sold off after post FRB meeting. So do we wait for the meeting to rise some more and then sell off or is this it and we sell off into the end of the month or is there something else going on? Who knows for sure but the VXN and the VIX are saying for longs to take shelter. These sentiment cliff dives without price appreciation have been ominous warning signs, especially at the end of the month. See June and August of last year.

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