For me, discussions with G&K people I've found to be very energy draining, so I prefer to avoid having them.
I first went to the G&K thread I guess in 2000 and that's where I got the 2000 G&K list. I tried a couple of times to get updated 2001 G&K lists but I couldn't follow the instructions in the thread descriptor. I know nothing about the existence of a '99 list.
As I implied in my post here, since stocks fluctuate, people can be in the same stock but some might have gains, some losses, depending on when they buy and/or sell. For general comparisons I assume if anyone were buying a Buffett stock - a stock recommended by Mr. Buffett - that person would be buying the stock around the time he bought or at or below the price he bought. To my knowledge - and I could be wrong - that would mean no Buffett follower nor Mr. Buffett himself would be recommending buying KO, G, or MRK at those high prices. On the other hand, the G&K thread - many, many times among the hot SI threads in 2000 (and 2001)- often suggested or implied that for G&K believers, G&K stocks on the list were (still) buys in 2000. After all, they were ones with that competitive and sustainable advantage. I don't recall any discussion or concern on the G&K thread about valuation or that the stocks might be too high (when those stocks were at highs); but it seems to me most stocks mentioned here -- Buffett-type, Mr. Buffett's himself, other stock types - do seem to get comments or comments related to valuation. To my mind that provides some cautionary checks to stocks like KO, G, etc. if they get too high and if they are mentioned here.
I am trying to present my view with appropriate disclaimers and discounts. I have not read all the G&K posts or opinions for 2000 and I don't follow the thread now. With the G&K thread being so popular (many posts), I'd guess there were discussions of every aspect of the G&K stocks - appropriate valuations, when to sell if ever, etc. To me though, the overarching theme seemed to be buy and hold, and once the stocks were down, have patience and faith. And since the game isn't over, that may well work out satisfactorily.
And I not claiming any expertise with Buffett stocks or certainty with my memory or interpretation of posts here. I am giving my impression only and it is based on my opinion of where my portfolio was and now might be if I had purchased G&K stocks at the time versus having bought Buffett stocks of the time.
Paul Senior |
