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I am happy to finally join this board,and I hope to beable to add a little insight into CCSI.First of all,I have been following this board for some time,and I am particularly impressed with Jane Fulsang's analysis,this lady knows her stuff.As for me,I have been long CCSI since Jan 1996,and my timing has been terrible,but a broken clock is right twice a day.I expect approval within 2 weeks,if not sooner,the final review was turned over to the staff exactly 3 weeks ago today.Each reviewer has to go over and dot every I and cross every T,how long does that tkae after you have been working on this application since January?The CEO is very relaxed,for her that is,and is highly confident of approval.I expect then we will get a look at the size of the market,and then hopefully some distribution deals.I believe the Bilirubin makrket to be in excess of $400mm per year,here and in the EC,that does not include the Pacific Rim and the undeveloped countires,where an alternative to blood testing would be very attractive for health reasons.I expect in 12ish ,months for CCSI to capture 10% of that market or $40mm@25% after tax margins=$10mm=$1 per share.A reasonable multiple should be 25x=$25. Now Cosmetics and dentistry will be a bigger market overall,and will be easier to penetrate,so the earnings rampup gets very exciting.I have a personal earnings model,but who cares until we get approval.At that time I expect to see CCSI in every financial journal,newspaper,tv news show,CNBC,as we are dealing with a disease that affewcts infants,and that is NEWS!I look forward to being a part of this board,and would be happy to discuss this further thru e-mail if that is allowed on this board.I am Skipard@aol.com. |
