Huge boom coming... repeated here in case you miss it! Message 16979495
<Summed over a large enough opportunity space, even the remotest eventuality has a probability of occurrence that approaches unity.
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That's how we do math in the 21'st century. Much easier than the icky old-economy foolishness you are trying to convince us to use.>
Mq replies:
<One point though, it's not really that that's how we do maths in the 21st century. That implies that it was done wrongly before. It wasn't. It was just that like Newtonian mechanics, which is only an approximation given a billiard ball concept of the cosmos in our little local neighbourhood without getting too big, too small or too fast, there is a more accurate way of measuring things these days than bean counting, or gold-standard counting with 'reversions to the mean', 'in the good old days', 'P:E ratios are too high' cliches based on the 19th and 20th century.
We are now exiting the black hole of the gold and territorial-style financial cosmos in inflationary mode and we need to use probabilistic and relativistic mathematics. Humans are no longer chimps fighting over land, trees, girls, gold and cattle. We've moved into the relativistic era. How big that financial universe outside the event horizon is going to be by 2010 is a tricky question and it needs that New Maths to predict what will be. In the same way, we wouldn't use Newtonian, gold-standard, physics to predict what the heck would happen if we took off in a space ship at a million km per hour and went into orbit around a black hole near the event horizon for 10 years then came back to see what was happening in the share markets on earth in 2012. Our clocks wouldn't match for a start. Newtonian maths just isn't up to the action.
So the maths is different, certainly, from what was used in the accountancy world of the 20th century and far different from the "Possession is 9 points of the law" world of the 19th century. But that's because the world is different.
Now, as you quite rightly point out, we could be at $100 billion annual profit by 2010. [I mean just in QUALCOMM, not the world's economy].
We are creating our own reality. The question is what reality we will choose to create. Since the biological imperatives are to make things better and there is no longer an inherent conflict between individuals in that statement [since we've moved out of the chimpoid era, more or less, a few glitches notwithstanding], it is P = 1 that by 2010 we'll be flying up the other side of the cusp dividing the biological antecedents of humanity from the Never-Never Land of unlimited prospects in the cyberspace-based world of CDMA and CDNA [TM].
What's hard to guess is what will happen on the other side of the cusp, but I bet It will have and be a LOT of fun.
Paradigm Shift Happens,
Mqurice>
Jay is creditor in possession of Global Crossing assets [along with Hutchison if the takeover is approved]. I haven't yet got my clutches on it [damn Hong Kong crowd grabbing it before me...] Fibre under the ocean between 200 cities is the backbone of fixed cyberspace. It's a great asset and when phased photons are sold in quantity at the right price, will make the world hum in cyberspace melodies. Hello Jay, sitting there at the other end of some fibre posting away! I thought you'd like the new maths rant. |
