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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics
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To: ajtj99 who wrote (25359)1/29/2002 8:49:42 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff  Read Replies (1) of 99280
 
AJ: Re: " I think what is more important is the percent change in the index, not the raw numbers themselves at this level."

I would agree with you that this was and probably still is the case in bull markets. But if one were to assume this is a bear market, low raw numbers spike downs that are also divergent to prices are a prelude to Vix spikes and lower prices. VXN and QQV can serve to confirm. So one can anticipate such spikes and lower prices ahead. If a (bear) rally goes on and on in a trading range but the Vix shows more complacency by registering lower readings in conjunction with lower prices in the market, longs are in trouble if one is operating under a bear market premise, especially, it seems, at the end of the month. It has worked for every bear market rally thus far and yet people continue to pooh-pooh the idea. All yesterday, I was reading the normal clap-trap associated with the Vix. Yeah, some would say, it is low but it could go lower. That is bull market thinking and so if one were assuming a bull market such thinking is quite natural. But in a bear market, the bull has temporary control until the bear says otherwise. The bear can take it back through a series of lower highs or he can take it back outright with a facial that will make your head spin. So maybe from now on, when folks talk about the Vix, they should first state whether they are bullish or bearish.
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