| For a couple of reasons. I think people will be disappointed with Q1 of 2002 as they were with Q4 of 2001. Telecom companies really won't be placing many orders until Q2, for instance, so that will put a damper on gear makers for one, which could bring the whole market down too. In addition, April and May have for the last 5 years been down months, as has been October. Don't ask me why that's so. Lastly, I think people want to see real signs of GDP growth before they will jump back into the market with both feet. Unfortunately, I think that we won't see real signs of growth (above 2% annualize) until June, July, or August. In addition, I don't think companies will feel comfortable giving guidance until July or August at the earliest. So that is why I think initial euphoria may keep the market high until Feb or March, but we'll retrace in April and May. Of course, I could be wrong and many times am, but I'm betting where my mouth is. Good luck! |
