Rydex Total Assets Update for Tuesday, January 29th, 2002:
Regular Series:
SPX Long - NOVA 216.3 Million**BULLISH Lowest Close since 9/26/01
SPX Short- URSA 276.3 Million**Inversion
NDX Long - OTC 900.8 Million**BULLISH Lowest close since 11/02/01
NDX Short- ARKTOS 149.3 Million**BULLISH Highest close since 9/18/00
RUT 2000 - MIKROS 57.2 Million**BULLISH
XAU Precious Metals 68.9 Million**BEARISH
XOI Energy 15.1 Million**BULLISH
BKX Banking 36.1 Million**S.T BEARISH
BTK Biotech 263.4 Million
Money Market 1.539 BILLION**BULLISH Overbought
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Dynamic Series (200% correlation to Index)
SPX Long - TITAN 96.9 Million**Inversion
SPX Short- TEMPEST 153.9 Million**BULLISH
NDX Long - VELOCITY 234.0 Million**S.T. Bearish
NDX Short- VENTURE 187.2 Million**BULLISH
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The likelihood of further downside intraday washout action is pretty high. There is no question in my mind we will hit minimum SPX 1,080 intraday low target with potential test SPX 1,060 area the bottom of the band at some later date (potentially even in this cycle low) before we reverse back up.
MER and JPM are below triple oversold, C is below double oversold, and JNJ, MSFT, GE are right above double oversold.
BKX sliced thru BKX 850 like a knife thru hot butter to close at BKX 823.59. Accounting scandal, ENE, TYC, JPM derivative murmurs ad nauseam all converged together to take down BKX and render my BKX 850 back to back close supports ex post facto. BKX 780 death row support should hold and I expect the BKX to stabilize around BKX 785 - 790 level before turning back up.
Today the Bulls got hit from all sides and took a beating as bad as Sugar Shane Mosly got Saturday night from Vernon Forrest. Instead of getting a minor cycle low into the 30th +/-... we got pounded to the canvas the likes of Felix Trinidad from Bernard Hopkins. Today the Bull had no fight and couldn't get back off the mat. Tomorrow is another day.
The most double oversold indices on the 5 day RSI are the OEX (15.56), BKX, (18.94), and SPX (19.55). That is it.
The DOW is 27, and all tech indices are above oversold readings (30+). SOX is still relatively strong at 47.31.
I am very uncomfortable with NDX Long Velocity TA rising (and NDX Short Venture TA decreasing) on a spank down day.
After having a hot hand in the XAU and gold stocks I have gone stone cold phillips. XAU closed above overbought at 70 + as it closed back above 60 @ XAU 60.35.
With Fed announcement tomorrow, my guess no rate cut, the market will probably sell the news and head back up on Thursday.
In summary, the market might finish the nasty what it started today into tomorrow with Thursday the 31st the + 1 day carryover. From there we head back up into the cycle highs on Feb 8 +/- 1 trading day.
In the big picture of it all is the four year cycle low due this year in the mid term election year. And from these lows you can expect a 50% increase into the 2003 intraday highs in the DOW, 40% + in the SPX and 70 - 80% in the NDX. Whether this time period into this low is THE LOW for 2002 remains to be seen.
Regular Series: 100% Long NDX OTC
Dynamic Series: 100% Long SPX TITAN
Best Regards, J.T. |
