Assuming Thomson's reporting is reliable, the one month i-watch chart is interesting:
iw.thomsonfn.com
It appears that institutions were doing a fair amount of selling from $16 down to $12 (somewhat balanced between buying and selling), but that during the fall over the last few days from $12 to below $10 has seen pretty much nothing but buys.
Look at the one week i-watch to confirm that:
iw.thomsonfn.com
As for how much of MIR the institutions actually own, BTW, the Nasdaq site has that:
nasdaq.com
As of 9/30, they owned about 43% of outstanding shares. Since insiders only own less that 1%, there are plenty of shares in the hands of individual investors.
So, what does it all mean? Who is selling if Thomson's says institutions are buying? Well, first of all, I've heard many doubts raised about their i-watch reporting, so I'd bet there are plenty of pension funds and even some mutual funds that are panicking out of the whole sector. They are not so cool-headed as one might hope, considering the amounts of money they are responsible for. Even CNBC has talked about how Janus has bailed out of already fallen stocks, dumping millions of shares at once with no regard for price and with no attempt at any kind of orderly exit.
That said, many MIR shares were distributed to SO shareholders in the spin-off (explaining the large portion of the float in individual hands, perhaps). Since many SO shareholders are likely the stereotypical utility investor (retired, living of dividends and interest, relying on their full-service broker for advice), it would not surprise me to find that many of them are running in fear from MIR, fear probably encouraged (at least, not discouraged) by their brokers.
Lastly, if you think MIR management is lying to you then 1) you should sell anyway (one should not invest in managements they believe to be liars), but 2) I am confident you are mistaken. MIR management has bent over backwards to answer all questions, to open their accounting up for scrutiny, and to bolster the company's liquidity in response to what I think are misplaced concerns.
Good luck, whatever you decide,
Bob |
