Freep, if the COMP re-traces 50% of the move up from the Sept. lows, it is pretty safe to assume the SOXX will be along for the ride. That about 475 on the SOXX if the COMP does a 50% re-trace. We know that bottoms usually happen by the first week of April, so most of the move could be accomplished by March. There is a cycle low in the end of Feb, so there is a decent chance we get to SOXX 475 by the end of Feb, IMO.
I think that response was to Mish, and at time he and a couple others were looking at March puts, but we didn't mention that on the public board.
As for EMLX, if it drops below 40, the box moves from 40-44 to 36-40. Before earnings came out, it was at 38.50, so it should re-visit that range as the market drops during Feb, IMO.
Freep, interesting comments from you yesterday about the Fed meeting 4-move theory. If we drop to NDX 1486 or so, we could have a 1-day bounce on 10-day Trin reading over 1.50, so we'll have gone up-down-up-and then back down after a 1-day bounce. I think we need 1-2-more days down before we get to 1.50 10-day TRIN.
As for puts on EMLX, I think options on volatile equities like EMLX are so expensive that it is very difficult to make money on them. You can do much better by shorting EMLX than options, IMO.
I check in on you guys at the CFEW. You have a pretty astute group there. Do you know Heinz' credentials? I can't find them anywhere, but I assume he's got a laundry list of them. |
