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Pastimes : ClownBuck Deathwatch
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To: ild who wrote (182)1/30/2002 4:32:10 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor  Read Replies (2) of 329
 
I think this point is well taken:

5. We need to hunt for the next big bubble. Will economies decouple from the US? To me, this is tantamount to asking whether Japan or Europe will experience a bubble. (In this discussion, by ‘bubble,’ I mean a sharp rally in a major asset, regardless of valuation.) The most likely candidate, to me, is a reform-triggered rally in the Nikkei. I see decoupling as more likely in Japan simply because Japan seems more likely to undergo the kind of a dramatic shift in policy that could trigger a rally. With the current conditions of orthodox policy prescriptions and a lack of major market misalignments, I don’t see how a bubble could emerge in Europe.

I'm gonna start looking for asset plays in Japan. The Yen probably has one more round of tough love, but after that (provided the Banks are finally "allowed" to go bankrupt) their should be some decent growth there. When the dollar finally gives way, I think the Yen may gain more traction than the Euro.
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