From: Zeev Hed Wednesday, Jan 30, 2002 5:22 PM
I thought we'd put the high around here, and that was wrong. Yet, the last two days' decline, could set the stage for finally getting that 2011, although, about a week late, and with a breach of the 1860 today. We got some extreme fear readings today, early in the morning, the equity P/C ratio went well above 1.00, and it closed at .94. after the rally that these extreme readings could produce (still have that stubborn 2011/40 area), I expect a decline to 1793 (possibly as low as 1757) into late February early March, after which I still expect a run above 2100 into April (maybe even a double top at 2250, as mentioned in the scenario at the end of last year). Not so sure about the 2250, but if we get once more extreme readings in the P/C ratio, it could be. Until we get a string of extra negative tics on the Naz (which I do not expect until late June, I have June 28 as a potential bottom around 1650, after the April/May highs), I think that rallies will be tricky, even a rally to a new recovery high like 2250.
Zeev |
