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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC)

INTC 41.41

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Dec 5 9:30 AM EST

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To: Tony Viola who wrote (157379)	1/30/2002 8:39:53 PM
From: wanna_bmw	Read Replies (2) of 186894

Tony, Re: "he said Dresden will be able to produce 50 million CPUs by end of year, so they can convert Austin to flash. I think the question may have been "is Dresden enough?". Didn't say how many good ones they'd get out of those 50M (maybe he meant 50M good ones)." AMD has been saying that for a long time. It certainly would be an enormous accomplishment, if they can. 12.5M CPUs per quarter on 5000 WSPW means roughly 192 good die per wafer. Since a 200mm wafer can fit 343 total 80mm^2 die, 192 good die works out to 56% yield (which might break down to ~60% die yield and line yield in the lower 90's). These are not improbable numbers. On the other hand, 12.5M die is still more than 2.5x the output that Dresden is currently getting. Is that much of an improvement really possible by moving to .13u? I don't know. Maybe it really is true that they are suffering temporarily poor yields on Palomino, and they intend for this to improve after the switch to .13u. Or maybe it's due to the transition to newer processes, meaning that a full .13u SOI ramp would allow them to utilize much more of the fab. Both of these are possible scenarios. While I agree that AMD's claims are optimistic, I don't think they should be taken lightly. wbmw

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