gem-x's Elliott Wave Forecast: Jan 30, '02
I found this on "The Stellar Investor's" web page, it's pretty old, from 1999, but interesting:
"Some astrologers believe that there is a correlation
between earthquakes and sharp market drops. Earthquakes are causes by the planets being in an unbalanced configuration, and this configurations show up easily in the heliocentric (sun-centered)viewpoint."
Even though the earthquake that residents, like myself, in California felt was pretty hairy last night, it was pretty interesting how the market dropped like it did today, in one "big uuuuh". I'm starting to get into the Astrological analysis of the stock market, and trying to find information about Gann and his circle of 9(?).. There are some pretty interesting web sites with dudes forecasting market moods on days with certain alignments of planets...
Anyway, tomorrow is THE day to watch....the VIX today reversed strongly on a pretty textbook morning star formation....if the Elliott Wave applies to the VIX, it may retrace the move down from 57 to 21, because it looks like 5 waves down....if this is the case, it could move to around 35-37 and be a precursor to more weakness, (.382 retrace of the move down), but looking at the history of the VIX, it really doesn't conform too well with 5 wave impulses.
It's starting to look more and more like my hope of fibonacci perfection could be a reality....if 2058 to 1879 was Wave 3, than Wave 5 down should retrace to 1823/1826 (about .618 X wave 1 + wave 3 down) from 1959....1859 would be nice to see too.
But, if 1879 to 1959 was "Wave B", which is less likely, but is still possible, the retracement to the .618 level, which is about 1656. The reason why I mention 1656, is because my preferred alternate wave count of the NASDAQ may seem odd to most...the alternate is the following: 1387 to 1529 as wave 1, 1529 to 1418 as wave 2 (.78 retrace), 1418 to 1794, Wave 3 (2.618 X wave 1), Wave 4 1794 to 1646 (dead on exact .382 retrace of Wave 3), and Wave 5 being an extension, being equal length to wave 1 + Wave 3, from 1646 to 2065. A .618 retrace of the entire move would be to 1656, which is within 10 points of the bottom of wave 4, and would fit the complete ideal Wave 2 correction. Wave 2 retracing .618 of the move, and terminating at the bottom of the previous wave 4 would be very textbook.
But I'm more tilted to the expanded flat correction to 1826/1859 because of the amount of days taken from the rally to 2065 (54-55 days) and the corrective wave (33-36 days if it becomes the expanded variety), as well as the seemingly picture perfect expanded flat wave movements of 2066 to 1918 to 2099 to 1826/1859/1879.
Tomorrow, I'd very much prefer to see a deep sell off in the morning, or a slow downward decay before 2:15, than some dumb looking leading diagonal moving to around 1912/1930....if there's a leading diagonal, or a A-B-C upward to around those two levels up to the announcement, there's a pretty strong chance that there's gonna be a large sell off when the news comes out. Like a mega "big UUUUH" drop.
I'd like to see this wave down complete in a 4, 5 tomorrow leading up to the announcement than to see the NASDAQ Futures turn up, and gap up tomorrow in yet another sucker bounce.
But the time to react is NOT at 2:15PM during the initial knee jerk reaction...every single fed meeting has huge volume movements that start at 3PM or later, usually in big wide swings. So be patient and wait until 3PM or later. I know I'll be waiting.
see y'all tomorrow..
gem-x
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