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To: Bill Ulrich who wrote (609)	7/3/1997 12:20:00 AM
From: Gottfried	of 1894

MrB, the only reason I worry about the next earthquake is because geologists tell me there is a 70% probability the big one will happen in the next 30 years (numbers approximate). If there was nobody predicting, I'd worry less. A crash is not a natural phenomenon. I think it is caused by mass psychology. Before and after a crash there are the same number of people on earth (minus the few who jump) with the same capabilities and needs. There is no natural reason for a crash. It's all in the mind. Granted - the market is high - but it has been high before. So we'll have a bear market - that doesn't mean the collapse of civilization. But the market may also just move sideways until earnings catch up with the high valuations. I can't time it any better than the next earthquake. I wouldn't move to Saskatchewan till the big quake is over. If you expect a crash and want to protect yourself, then we can discuss that. Protect yourself is about all you can do. Re: >"Those who don't remember the past, are doomed to repeat it."< I'm not sure remembering makes us immune. People don't always learn from mistakes. (Just look at the high rate of recidivism) But not all past evils recur. Man has wiped out many illnesses, at least here. In the stock market odd lot shorts used to be an indicator. I hear it is no longer reliable. Slowly investors are becoming more rational. Excesses correct faster. We may have frequent small quakes - preventing the big one. GM

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