gem-x's Elliott Wave Forecast for Jan 31, '02
Wednesday had all the signs of a major trend reversal...
The VIX spiked up to 30 and the candle immediately reversed, put call ratio was as high as 1.29 intraday, which was as high as it was during the huge selloff in September...if you look at the number of puts in the money compared to calls, you'd see a real lopsided amount of puts on all the major stocks and indexes. For example, the Feb 38 QQQ put has open interest of 96,000 puts vs. 19,000 calls That's a crazy put call ratio of 5.05, and expiration is coming up pretty quick because Feb 1 is on a Friday which means the expiration is on the 15th .... the first half of the day had a large drop on large volume, followed by a very strong reversal on all the major indexes on heavy volume, created a new intraday high, than closed at their highs in positive territory, the daily RSI diverged as the NASDAQ created a new low, but the RSI didn't follow, and the candlesticks on just about every stock were very bullish....on the NASDAQ and SPX, very nice looking hammers with long tails and small bodies,
What's nice too (here it comes), is that this reversal occured on the 89th day since the bottom on Sept 21, which is a Fibonacci number, and a typical length of time from "bottom to bottom", which is 1387 and 1852. The major indexes topped on their 55th days (another Fibonacci number), and dropped 34-35 days in their corrections. And what's even more nice is that the exact target and exact day I've been forecasting since that Jan 23rd e-mail, when Silicon Investor decided to suspend me again (conspiracy, gee I wonder why, you think all those Clown Free E-Wave Workspace and Clown Free Zone people aren't "in" with the employees of Silicon Investor? maybe if they get rid of gem-x, and doing employee only things, like clicking off my message board when it seems permanently locked at #1 on the Hot List for more than a 2 weeks in a row, than they can feel happy about themselves.) for a turnaround hit. I was expecting a low of either 1859, 1853 and 1826 on the day of the fed mee (I did all my cheerleading already, so I'm not gonna do anymore "back patting")
Here's the URL to my post on Longwaves:
csf.colorado.edu
I can go on and on and on....in order for all these bullish technicals to be confirmed, there must be a strong volume follow through day tomorrow....a big white candle to create morning star reversal patterns across the board, than I can go around staking claim to have forecasted yet another major bottom, the exact numbers, on the exact day, like Sept 21st when the NASDAQ hit 1387 and DOW hit 7926. (sorry if I keep on yapping about this, but honestly, this is a big deal!)
In the past, I've seen a few bullish reversal days like this, and every single day that had long tail hammer reversals as nice as this were pre-cursors to a large upward trend change, and got confirmations with a big follow through day to the upside....take a look at the candles of the DOW NYSE and SPX on Sept 21st.. Today screamed like one of those days.
Before I get all frothy and "The Rock"-ish, there needs to be the confirmation move tomorrow, so this forecasted bottom is not quite 100% complete. I'm not quite ready to run around the internet carrying a flag until everything is completely comfirmed.
The first wave up in an uptrend usually retraces .618 of the entire 5 wave move down, which was 2099 to 1852. This would target the NASDAQ around 2000-2004. After the NASDAQ retraces to 2000-2004, a retest of .500/.618, than a large volume rally breaking 2099. This would likely confirm Wave 3, and a very nice rally from 1852 to as high as 3000 by this summer.
That would be very very nice, if my forecast of NASDAQ 3000 by late May, early June hit....vewwy vewwy nice..
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