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Strategies & Market Trends : Investor sentiment surveys - a technical indicator

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To: Q. who wrote (76)	7/3/1997 12:55:00 AM
From: James F. Hopkins	of 167

John: the last sentimate number I found on the thread ended with 6-20 at about 54%... what about last weeks, do you have them..my guess is it's fallen some if not a lot. BTW you mention the S&P 500 P/E over 20 several times,, but that by itself may not be valid..both corretions before when it was over 20 and the correction came..interest rates were high. hell in 87 the interest rates were about 8.5% when the market crashed..you can bet if greenspam had'v bumbed them up today we would have had hell..as a no increase was mostly priced into the market. The bump up we got after the all clear signal came was funds selling hedge positions in options and futures and buying stocks. BTW 2..I don't see how the option ratio can really have the noise filtered out enoung to call say which way the betters are leaning, I trade options a lot, and have listen to the experts, and they argue enough I know they don't know. There are tooo many sratigies one can run on options for others to just look at the ratio of calls puts and assume it's bullish or bearish. A friend of mine just sold a call position at a low strike price, and bought one at a higher one..both were call positions..but that is a bearish spread you sell the high one buy the cheap one, It limit's your risk..and the gain is also limited , but also you enter this position with out putting up any cash as you use part of what you get on the sale of the one to buy the cheaper other. I could go on and on with bullish put spreads straddels and all no one can figure what the collection of options says at any one time. Also noted that the index options were opposite of the equity options..many fund managers buy both, one is the hedge aginst the other, and some positions are taken because of small advantages in the spreads. ------------------ In short I like your survey a lot better..if I roll that into and or compare it with the short interest data, to get comformations then I think I have a more dependable indicator, they all seem to lie at times..but that don't mean we don't have to do the best we can. ----------------------- Damm I talk to much.. you got last weeks sentiment survey ? Jim Jim

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