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Strategies & Market Trends : Wall Street Analysts

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To: Patsy Collins who wrote (91)	1/31/2002 12:13:16 PM
From: Wizard	Read Replies (1) of 167

ISI update... Do the math and its going to be hard to keep Q1 GDP growth <4%. It is nearly inconceivable that inventory y/y change didn't bottom in Q401. There just isn't enough inventory left to go down another -$130 billion or so in Q1... Re tech, In March or April, semiconductor companies will begin scrambling for product. I am already seeing spot shortages and re-fill. This is how expansions begin. The only risk is another shock to the economy a la Al Qaeda.... I don't even think that would have a lasting effect though. How big a surprise would that be??? Not much...

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