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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA
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To: J.T. who wrote (10038)1/31/2002 2:53:55 PM
From: Steve Lee  Read Replies (2) of 19219
 
In 1995, the whole year was a "melt up" starting in Nov 1994. In Nov 1994, VIX was at a 7 mth peak.

In 1996, the "melt up" was in January with another one in July. Jan '96, VIX was at a 12 month high which was surpassed by the next VIX high in July.

In 1997, the "melt up" started from a trough at the beginning of April. Guess what the VIX was doing in April '97! It was at a high surpassed in the last 12 mths only by the VIX high that lead to the previous (July 96) "melt up".

There is a discernable pattern here don't you think?

Of all the days in the last year, we are around the 30th percentile from the lowest VIX reading (and near the bottom for VXN). That's why I don't see a melt up.
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