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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace

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To: John Madarasz who wrote (29880)	1/31/2002 2:58:45 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) of 209892

John, I do not think that we are out of the recession. IMHO we are starting to stabilize but that does not mean we turn around and grow 3.5% to 4% as in previous recoveries. The FED at least was honest about that in their wording. Financial markets are a complete other story and as the issue of lower interest rates is not a reason to push up stocks, now they hang on on the recovery story which is not even evident in the positively skewed government statistics. Shrub clearly stated that we are still at war and more money will be spend on defense (which is positive for GDP but negative for the standard of living and interest rates) generating more budget deficits. Presently the US rides on pure military power and it's success in having it's way in Afghanistan (even that I am happy about that) As such the USD is powering higher and not for objective fundamental economic issues. IMHO we will have a sluggish drag like Japan for several years, with postponement of the actual recovery 6 months each time.

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