i believe the initial rise from that low could be a 1-2,1-2. Roy Fellars from longwaves had a chart showing that count...i'll see if i can find it and post it up here.
btw., as i said before, one needs to look beyond the US gold indices to gauge the gold market mood...since gold production isn't a particularly US-centric business. and there can be ZERO doubt about the count of the JSE All Golds index for instance. that's a text-book impulsive rise. the biggest caveat i have is the PoG itself, which actually represents the bull market 'hook' at the moment. but it's difficult to make a case for impulse waves there, not that there aren't any e-wavers out there doing just that. i'm in any case more of a loose form elliotician...don't care much about all the strict rules. if you look at the individual gold stocks, they're clearly behaving in bull market fashion..frequent shake-outs, often scary ones, followed by runs to new highs. of course the bears have become a bit scarcer now, so maybe it's time for another one of those shake-outs.
a funny anecdote: long time gold bull Nick Goodwin (South African gold analyst, pretty well known) has turned bearish about three weeks or so ago, after years of being bullish apparently. the reason? he thinks the high Rand gold price will increase South African production. as if that mattered, LOL! (if SA output rises by 10%, that would mean 40 tons - a drop in the bucket in terms of international capital flows and the structural deficit). but the most astonishing thing is that aggregate SA production, adding up what was disclosed in recent earnings reports, has actually gone DOWN instead! it appears the owners of inflating assets aren't so eager to sell as much as possible after all.... |
