Zeev's Turnips - No Politics Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics

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To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (25999)	1/31/2002 5:15:22 PM
From: DlphcOracl	Read Replies (2) of 99280

Justa W.: Remember: the first trading week (1/31 through 2/6) in any month is historically bullish, with the indices rising 75% of the time. With the recent ARMS index reading of over 1.5 and yesterday's high put/call ratio (intraday) of 131%, 105% at close despite snap back rally. and VIX spike to 30, a reaction rally may be at hand. Additionally, Peter Eliades noted that the Trading Index (a variation of the Arms Index) was over 3.0 yesterday, something that has only happened six times since October 1997, with the following results: 10/27/97: exact low 1/9/98: exact low 8/31/98: exact low 4/14/00: exact low 3/12/01: S&P decreased 6.8%, Dow dropped 8% 4/3/01: exact low on the Dow and S&P Eliades infers that this has a strong chance of indicating that yesterday marked a market low. I am NOT saying that this will lead to a massive rally (although Don Hays is looking for 13-15% upside, FWIW) -- however, I would consider waiting until we get through the monthly "strength" period, which ends next Wednesday, and reevaluate with regard to aggressively placing shorts. DlphcOracl

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